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Monday, June 7, 2010

Earnings Per Share

One of the challenges of evaluating stocks is establishing an “apples to apples” comparison. What I mean by this is setting up a comparison that is meaningful so that the results help you make an investment decision.

Comparing the price of two stocks is meaningless as I point out in my article “Why Per-Share Price is Not Important.”

Similarly, comparing the earnings of one company to another really doesn’t make any sense, if you think about it. Using the raw numbers ignores the fact that the two companies undoubtedly have a different number of outstanding shares.

For example, companies A and B both earn $100, but company A has 10 shares outstanding, while company B has 50 shares outstanding. Which company’s stock do you want to own?

It makes more sense to look at earnings per share (EPS) for use as a comparison tool. You calculate earnings per share by taking the net earnings and divide by the outstanding shares.

EPS = Total Revenue / Outstanding Shares
Using our example above, Company A had earnings of $100 and 10 shares outstanding, which equals an EPS of 10 ($100 / 10 = 10). Company B had earnings of $100 and 50 shares outstanding, which equals an EPS of 2 ($100 / 50 = 2).

So, you should go buy Company A with an EPS of 10, right? Maybe, but not on just the basis of its EPS. The EPS is helpful in comparing one company to another, assuming they are in the same industry, but it doesn’t tell you whether it’s a good stock to buy or what the market thinks of it. For that information, we need to look at some ratios.

Before we move on, you should note that there are three types of EPS numbers:

  • Trailing EPS – last year’s numbers and the only actual EPS
  • Current EPS – this year’s numbers, which are still projections
  • Forward EPS – future numbers, which are obviously projections
If there is one number that people look at than more any other it is the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). The P/E is one of those numbers that investors throw around with great authority as if it told the whole story. Of course, it doesn’t tell the whole story (if it did, we wouldn’t need all the other numbers.)

The P/E looks at the relationship between the stock price and the company’s earnings. The P/E is the most popular metric of stock analysis, although it is far from the only one you should consider.

You calculate the P/E by taking the share price and dividing it by the company’s EPS.

P/E = Stock Price / EPS

For example, a company with a share price of $40 and an EPS of 8 would have a P/E of 5 ($40 / 8 = 5).

What does P/E tell you? The P/E gives you an idea of what the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. The higher the P/E the more the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. Some investors read a high P/E as an overpriced stock and that may be the case, however it can also indicate the market has high hopes for this stock’s future and has bid up the price.

Conversely, a low P/E may indicate a “vote of no confidence” by the market or it could mean this is a sleeper that the market has overlooked. Known as value stocks, many investors made their fortunes spotting these “diamonds in the rough” before the rest of the market discovered their true worth.

What is the “right” P/E? There is no correct answer to this question, because part of the answer depends on your willingness to pay for earnings. The more you are willing to pay, which means you believe the company has good long term prospects over and above its current position, the higher the “right” P/E is for that particular stock in your decision-making process. Another investor may not see the same value and think your “right” P/E is all wrong.

In my article on Price to Earnings Ratio or P/E , I noted that this number gave you an idea of what value the market place on a company’s earnings.

The P/E is the most popular way to compare the relative value of stocks based on earnings because you calculate it by taking the current price of the stock and divide it by the Earnings Per Share (EPS). This tells you whether a stock’s price is high or low relative to its earnings.

Some investors may consider a company with a high P/E overpriced and they may be correct. A high P/E may be a signal that traders have pushed a stock’s price beyond the point where any reasonable near term growth is probable.

However, a high P/E may also be a strong vote of confidence that the company still has strong growth prospects in the future, which should mean an even higher stock price.

Because the market is usually more concerned about the future than the present, it is always looking for some way to project out. Another ratio you can use will help you look at future earnings growth is called the PEG ratio. The PEG factors in projected earnings growth rates to the P/E for another number to remember.

You calculate the PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth in earnings.

PEG = P/E / (projected growth in earnings)

For example, a stock with a P/E of 30 and projected earning growth next year of 15% would have a PEG of 2 (30 / 15 = 2).

What does the “2” mean? Like all ratios, it simply shows you a relationship. In this case, the lower the number the less you pay for each unit of future earnings growth. So even a stock with a high P/E, but high projected earning growth may be a good value.

Looking at the opposite situation; a low P/E stock with low or no projected earnings growth, you see that what looks like a value may not work out that way. For example, a stock with a P/E of 8 and flat earnings growth equals a PEG of 8. This could prove to be an expensive investment.

A few important things to remember about PEG:

  • It is about year-to-year earnings growth
  • It relies on projections, which may not always be accurate
You have a number of tools available to you when it comes to evaluating companies with earnings. The first three articles listed at the bottom of this article, in particular deal with earnings directly. You can add the two others on dividends and the one on return on equity to the list as specific to companies that are or have made money in the past.

Does that mean companies that don’t have any earnings are bad investments? Not necessarily, but you should approach companies with no history of actually making money with caution.

The Internet boom of the late 1990s was a classic example of hundreds of companies coming to the market with no history of earning – some of them didn’t even have products yet. Fortunately, that’s behind us.

However, we still have the problem of needing some measure of young companies with no earnings, yet worthy of consideration. After all, Microsoft had no earnings at one point in its corporate life.

One ratio you can use is Price to Sales or P/S ratio. This metric looks at the current stock price relative to the total sales per share. You calculate the P/S by dividing the market cap of the stock by the total revenues of the company.

You can also calculate the P/S by dividing the current stock price by the sales per share.

P/S = Market Cap / Revenues
or
P/S = Stock Price / Sales Price Per Share

Much like P/E, the P/S number reflects the value placed on sales by the market. The lower the P/S, the better the value, at least that’s the conventional wisdom. However, this is definitely not a number you want to use in isolation. When dealing with a young company, there are many questions to answer and the P/S supplies just one answer.

There are some metrics used in fundamental analysis that fall into what I call the “ho-hum” category.

The Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) is one of those numbers. It almost seems like a measurement invented because it looked like it was important, but nobody can really agree on why.

The DPR (it usually doesn’t even warrant a capitalized abbreviation) measures what a company’s pays out to investors in the form of dividends.

You calculate the DPR by dividing the annual dividends per share by the Earnings Per Share.

DPR = Dividends Per Share / EPS

For example, if a company paid out $1 per share in annual dividends and had $3 in EPS, the DPR would be 33%. ($1 / $3 = 33%)

The real question is whether 33% is good or bad and that is subject to interpretation. Growing companies will typically retain more profits to fund growth and pay lower or no dividends.

Companies that pay higher dividends may be in mature industries where there is little room for growth and paying higher dividends is the best use of profits (utilities used to fall into this group, although in recent years many of them have been diversifying).

Either way, you must view the whole DPR issue in the context of the company and its industry. By itself, it tells you very little.

Not all of the tools of fundamental analysis work for every investor on every stock. If you are looking for high growth technology stocks, they are unlikely to turn up in any stock screens you run looking for dividend paying characteristics.

However, if you are a value investor or looking for dividend income then there are a couple of measurements that are specific to you. For dividend investors, one of the telling metrics is Dividend Yield.

This measurement tells you what percentage return a company pays out to shareholders in the form of dividends. Older, well-established companies tend to payout a higher percentage then do younger companies and their dividend history can be more consistent.

You calculate the Dividend Yield by taking the annual dividend per share and divide by the stock’s price.

Dividend Yield = annual dividend per share / stock's price per share

For example, if a company’s annual dividend is $1.50 and the stock trades at $25, the Dividend Yield is 6%. ($1.50 / $25 = 0.06)

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